Texas Rangers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8García grounded into fielder's choice to third, Seager scored, Jung out at second.2–7
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 7Garrett homered to left center (396 feet).1–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 7Meneses homered to center (407 feet).1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 6Abrams singled to center, García scored, Call to third.1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Call singled to center, Ruiz scored and Smith scored, García to second.1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6García singled to left, Semien scored, Jung to second.1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 5Thomas singled to center, Call scored, Abrams to second.0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Smith homered to center (406 feet).0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Fair odds
- TEX -108
- WSH +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.0 – 4.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −9 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +65 Elo | TEX 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 7th of 3025–20 | Road vs home | 14–3228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.