Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jung singled to left, Lowe scored and García scored.5–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8García doubled to left, Seager scored, Lowe to third.5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Lowe singled to center, Semien scored, Seager to second.5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 8Fry homered to left (404 feet), J. Naylor scored.5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Lowe singled to center, Semien scored, Seager to third.3–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 2Kwan singled to center, Arias scored and Fry scored, Straw to second.3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Semien homered to left (349 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Kwan homered to right center (407 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 56%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.9 – 5.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −10 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: Martin Perez: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +40 Elo | TEX 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.91st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 20th of 3021–25 | Road vs home | 29–185th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–2 TEX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.