Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Heim homered to center (419 feet).4–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–12
- 8García homered to center (431 feet), Lowe scored.4–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 8Seager homered to center (411 feet).4–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–8
- 7Taveras singled to right, Heim scored, Jankowski thrown out at home.4–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 7Heim doubled to left, García scored and Lowe scored.4–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 7García singled to left, Seager scored, Lowe to second.4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 14–4
- 7Seager doubled to center, Semien scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 6Heim singled to right, Lowe scored, Jung to second.4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Jankowski singled to center, García scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Lowe homered to center (415 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.8 – 5.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +12 | CLE: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +55 Elo | TEX 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 17th of 3021–23 | Road vs home | 27–185th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.