Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting2-2
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 2Semien hit sacrifice fly to right, Heim scored on error, Taveras safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Fry, Jankowski to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1García grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Semien scored, Lowe out at second, Seager to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Fair odds
- TEX -120
- CLE +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 5.0 – 5.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −12 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +54 Elo | TEX 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.91st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.72nd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 17th of 3021–24 | Road vs home | 28–185th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 TEX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.