Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Francisco MejiaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching8.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Melendez homered to right center (409 feet).4–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–7
- 8Mejía homered to right (393 feet), Aranda scored and Margot scored.4–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 8Paredes homered to left center (406 feet).1–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Witt Jr. homered to left (419 feet).0–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 4Waters homered to right center (465 feet).0–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2Witt Jr. tripled to center, Pratto scored and Lopez scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Pratto singled to center, Waters scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Waters tripled to center, Isbel scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Melendez doubled to center, Perez scored, Melendez thrown out at third.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 66%
- Fair odds
- TB -125
- KC +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.9 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −1 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +112 Elo | TB 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 7th of 3025–20 | Road vs home | 13–3329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 4–2 KC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.