Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jose SiriBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Siri homered to left (383 feet).1–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 10–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 8Heim homered to right (396 feet), Lowe scored and J. Smith scored.0–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 7Taveras singled to center, Jankowski scored.0–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Taveras homered to right (377 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 56%
- Fair odds
- TEX -112
- TB +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.2 – 5.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +12 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +38 Elo | TEX 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 10th of 3025–23 | Road vs home | 32–183rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 2–3 TEX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.