Los Angeles Dodgers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching3.2 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Duran doubled to left, Heim scored on error, Duran safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Rojas.4–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 3Taveras doubled to center, Miller scored and Duran scored.4–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 2Jung singled to center, Semien scored, Lowe to second.4–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 2Lowe singled to center, J. Smith scored, Semien to third.4–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 2Semien singled to center, Miller scored, J. Smith to second.4–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 1Heim doubled to right, Lowe scored and Jankowski scored.4–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Muncy homered to right (392 feet), Betts scored, Freeman scored and Taylor scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- LAD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.5 – 5.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −10 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TEX: Martin Perez: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +7 Elo | TEX 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 9th of 3028–24 | Road vs home | 33–204th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 2–0 TEX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.