Los Angeles Dodgers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Deluca homered to left center (406 feet), Outman scored and Hernández scored.16–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play16–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 216–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 116–3
- 8Peralta singled to center, Muncy scored.13–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking13–3
- 8Martinez hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored, Muncy to third.12–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 212–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking12–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 112–3
- 8Muncy doubled to left, Freeman scored, Smith to third.11–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 111–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–3
- 5Lowe tripled to center, Duran scored and Jankowski scored.10–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 210–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 110–1
- 4Martinez homered to center (417 feet), Smith scored and Muncy scored.10–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 27–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 4Freeman homered to right (396 feet), Rojas scored.7–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 3Muncy homered to right center (421 feet).5–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Freeman homered to right (391 feet).4–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Fair odds
- TEX -112
- LAD +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.3 – 5.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +3 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +22 Elo | TEX 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.61st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3027–24 | Road vs home | 33–193rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–0 TEX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.