Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alek ManoahPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Mike FordBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Espinal singled to left, Merrifield scored, Kirk to second.4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Moore singled to right, Raleigh scored, France to third.3–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Belt homered to right center (363 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Guerrero Jr. homered to right (345 feet), Springer scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Ford homered to right (407 feet), Raleigh scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Fair odds
- SEA -108
- TOR +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | −20 | TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 1.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +17 Elo | SEA 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 10th of 3027–25 | Road vs home | 29–2412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–3 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.