Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting4-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Outman doubled to right, Taylor scored.7–8
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 9Taylor reached on infield single to second, Betts scored and Smith scored, Muncy out at third in rundown.7–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–7
- 9Muncy walked, Rojas scored, Smith to second, Betts to third.7–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 47–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 37–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 9Betts singled to left, Outman scored, Rojas to second.7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 9Jansen doubled to left, Chapman scored, Springer scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 24–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 8Martinez homered to center (416 feet).4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8Kirk doubled to left, Chapman scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Muncy hit sacrifice fly to right, Freeman scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Bichette homered to left center (411 feet), Kiermaier scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.8 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +1 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +31 Elo | LAD 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 8th of 3029–25 | Road vs home | 29–172nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 LAD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.