Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tony KempBatting3-4
- Hogan HarrisPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wisely singled to left, Yastrzemski scored, Wisely out stretching at second.3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 8Yastrzemski doubled to right, Bailey scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 8Bailey doubled to left, Matos scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 33–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Slater homered to left center (371 feet), Flores scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Langeliers singled to right, Peterson scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Peterson singled to center, Bleday scored on error and Laureano scored on throwing error by center fielder Matos, Peterson to third.2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Schmitt doubled to center, Yastrzemski scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Davis homered to right (353 feet), Wade Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 66%
- Fair odds
- SF -144
- OAK +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.9 – 4.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +4 | OAK: Hogan Harris: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SF: Ryan Walker: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +116 Elo | SF 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 29th of 3013–36 | Road vs home | 27–2213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–1 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.