Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting3-4, 3 HR, 4 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Jordan DiazBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tucker homered to right (371 feet).6–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 5Bleday grounded out to first, Gelof scored, J. Diaz to third.5–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 35–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5A. Díaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Kemp scored, J. Diaz to second, Gelof to third.5–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5J. Diaz walked, Allen scored, Gelof to second, Kemp to third.5–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 45–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 35–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Tucker homered to right center (396 feet), Peña scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3J. Diaz singled to left, Kemp scored, Gelof to second.3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Bregman homered to left center (392 feet), Peña scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 11 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 10 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 60%
- Fair odds
- HOU -117
- OAK +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.7 – 4.4 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +8 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +72 Elo | HOU 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 5th of 3029–21 | Road vs home | 14–3730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 7–0 OAK in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.