Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting2-4
- Chris MurphyPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Ryan NodaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 2Bleday homered to center (396 feet), A. Díaz scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Noda homered to right (402 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 63%
- Fair odds
- BOS -118
- OAK +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.3 – 4.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −18 | BOS: Joe Jacques (no track record yet) · OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +96 Elo | BOS 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −2.730th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 10th of 3025–22 | Road vs home | 12–3630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 4–0 OAK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.