Boston Red Sox at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hoerner tripled to right, Tauchman scored.11–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 111–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–5
- 9Tauchman singled to center, Mancini scored.11–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 211–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 111–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–4
- 8Wisdom hit sacrifice fly to center, Tauchman scored.11–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking11–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 311–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 211–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–3
- 8Morel reached on infield single to first, Mastrobuoni scored, Hoerner to second, Tauchman to third.11–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–2
- 8Hoerner walked, Mancini scored, Tauchman to second, Mastrobuoni to third.11–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 411–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 311–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 211–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 111–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–1
- 8Casas homered to center (419 feet), Refsnyder scored.11–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–0
- 7Yoshida scored on Rucker wild pitch.9–0
- 7Yoshida scored on Rucker wild pitch.9–0
- 7Yoshida tripled to center, Devers scored and Duvall scored.8–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 38–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 28–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Fair odds
- CHC -108
- BOS +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.7 – 4.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +13 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +25 Elo | CHC 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 13th of 3023–22 | Road vs home | 22–2321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–1 CHC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.