Chicago Cubs at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching7.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tauchman homered to right center (387 feet), Mastrobuoni scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 5Stanton homered to right (322 feet), Torres scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Bader doubled to left, Torres scored and Stanton scored, Rizzo to third.1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Hoerner grounded out to second, Mastrobuoni scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Donaldson homered to left center (399 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Stanton homered to left (447 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Fair odds
- NYY -118
- CHC +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +9 | CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +45 Elo | NYY 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3019–23 | Road vs home | 27–2211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–0 NYY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.