Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tauchman scored on error, Hoerner safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Anderson, Hoerner out at second on runner's fielder's choice.4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 9Tauchman doubled to left, Bellinger scored and Young scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 6Anderson singled to center, Jones scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Adames homered to left center (390 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Contreras singled to right, Monasterio scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Happ singled to center, Tauchman scored, Suzuki to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Fair odds
- MIL -116
- CHC +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.6 – 5.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +11 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +20 Elo | MIL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3017–22 | Road vs home | 23–1912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 2–3 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.