Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Hoerner reached on infield single to shortstop, Bellinger scored.7–6
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 9Contreras hit sacrifice fly to left, Turang scored.6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Yelich singled to center, Tapia scored, Turang to second.6–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–4
- 8Adames doubled to left, Contreras scored, Tellez to third.6–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 16–3
- 8Tellez singled to center, Wiemer scored, Contreras to third.6–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 36–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 8Amaya doubled to left, Bellinger scored and Young scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Contreras reached on infield single to catcher, Yelich scored on throwing error by catcher Amaya, Contreras to second.4–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Turang singled to right, Miller scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Bellinger reached on single to center, Morel scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Mancini hit sacrifice fly to center, Happ scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- CHC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.5 – 4.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +20 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.98 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +40 Elo | MIL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 29th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3016–22 | Road vs home | 23–1810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–3 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.