Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Tucker BarnhartBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Julio TeheranPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Miller hit sacrifice fly to right, Yelich scored.6–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–8
- 8Adames singled to right, Contreras scored, Yelich to third.6–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 7Jah. Jones doubled to center, Tapia scored, Yelich scored and Miller scored.6–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 3Adames singled to left, Yelich scored.6–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 3Contreras scored on error, Yelich safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Young, Yelich safe at third on error.6–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 3Contreras doubled to left, Turang scored.6–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 3Barnhart singled to left, Madrigal scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 3Madrigal doubled to left, Morel scored and Swanson scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Barnhart reached on infield single to first, Morel scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Morel doubled to left, Bellinger scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Bellinger singled to right, Swanson scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Fair odds
- MIL -116
- CHC +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | 0 | CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Julio Teheran: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +22 Elo | MIL 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3016–21 | Road vs home | 22–1810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–2 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.