Chicago Cubs at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting1-4
- Carlos RodonPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wisdom doubled to left, Bellinger scored.3–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Hoerner singled to right, Mancini scored, Wisdom to second.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Bellinger homered to right (410 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- CHC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | −7 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 1.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +50 Elo | NYY 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 27–219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.