Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caratini homered to right (404 feet).5–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 15–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 8Gomes homered to left (390 feet), Bellinger scored.5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Adames hit sacrifice fly to left, Yelich scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Bellinger homered to right center (392 feet), Suzuki scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Yelich homered to left (372 feet), Caratini scored and Wiemer scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Wiemer singled to left, Tapia scored, Caratini to second.1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Bellinger doubled to right, Morel scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 49%
- Fair odds
- MIL -112
- CHC +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.5 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −19 | CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +8 Elo | CHC 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 23–2013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 3–3 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.