Chicago Cubs at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Kyle HigashiokaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Barnhart doubled to right, Young scored, Mastrobuoni to third.7–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul6–4
- 8Hoerner scored on Holmes wild pitch, Happ to second on wild pitch by Holmes.6–4
- 8Hoerner scored on Holmes wild pitch, Happ to second on wild pitch by Holmes.6–4
- 8Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to right, Tauchman scored, Hoerner to third.5–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 7Gomes singled to center, Bellinger scored and Morel scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 7Young grounded out to first, Happ scored, Morel to second, Bellinger to third.2–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 31–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 6Higashioka homered to right center (354 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 6Volpe homered to left (384 feet), McKinney scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Suzuki homered to left (371 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Rizzo doubled to right, Torres scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Fair odds
- NYY -117
- CHC +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −5 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYY: Domingo German: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +27 Elo | NYY 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3019–24 | Road vs home | 28–229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–1 NYY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.