Boston Red Sox at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turner grounded out to third, Hernández scored, Duran to third.4–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–10
- 7Amaya singled to center, Mancini scored, Morel to third.3–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 7Morel singled to left, Bellinger scored, Mancini to second.3–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–8
- 7Casas homered to right center (425 feet), Devers scored.3–8
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 4Wisdom homered to center (415 feet), Amaya scored.1–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 4Verdugo grounded out to shortstop, Turner scored.1–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 3Bellinger homered to center (414 feet), Hoerner scored, Suzuki scored and Happ scored.0–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Suzuki grounded into fielder's choice to third, Amaya scored on throwing error by third baseman Devers, Hoerner advanced to second on error, Wisdom out at third.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Hoerner reached on infield single to shortstop, Morel scored, Wisdom to second, Amaya to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 50%
- Fair odds
- CHC -105
- BOS +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.6 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +5 | BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS 0 Elo | BOS 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 11th of 3023–21 | Road vs home | 21–2323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 CHC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.