Boston Red Sox at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chang homered to left center (418 feet).8–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 7Turner homered to center (398 feet), Yoshida scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6Bellinger homered to left center (371 feet).5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Bellinger homered to left center (372 feet).5–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 35–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4Casas homered to center (395 feet).5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Tauchman doubled to center, Barnhart scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 3Devers homered to right (408 feet).4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Turner hit sacrifice fly to right, Duran scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Duvall homered to left (425 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Devers homered to center (417 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 49%
- Fair odds
- CHC -105
- BOS +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.5 – 4.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | 0 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +9 Elo | BOS 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–21 | Road vs home | 21–2223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.