Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 13 K
Athletics- Ryan NodaBatting1-3
- Paul BlackburnPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turner grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wong scored, Verdugo to second, Duran out at third.7–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 6Chang grounded out to third, Arroyo scored, Wong to third.6–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 6Wong doubled to left, Yoshida scored and Casas scored, Arroyo to third.5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 6Duvall hit sacrifice fly to right, Turner scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Wong singled to left, Duvall scored, Casas to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Turner hit sacrifice fly to right, Duran scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 59%
- Fair odds
- BOS -115
- OAK +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.0 – 4.7 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +8 | BOS: Brennan Bernardino: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +66 Elo | BOS 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.730th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 11th of 3024–22 | Road vs home | 12–3530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–0 OAK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.