Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Chas McCormickBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani homered to center (411 feet).9–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–8
- 9Tucker homered to right center (437 feet).9–7
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 38–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–7
- 9Bregman homered to left center (397 feet), Kessinger scored.8–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–7
- 9Dubón grounded out to third, Madris scored.6–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 25–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 8McCormick homered to right center (395 feet), Bregman scored.5–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 7Ward doubled to center, Moniak scored, Neto scored and Ohtani scored.3–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 7Neto doubled to center, Velazquez scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Meyers homered to right center (378 feet).3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 7McCormick homered to center (378 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Cabbage doubled to left, Thaiss scored and Ward scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 52%
- Fair odds
- LAA -107
- HOU +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.8 – 5.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | 0 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +16 Elo | LAA 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 6th of 3026–20 | Road vs home | 24–2114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 6–3 LAA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.