Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AbreuBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ward homered to left (410 feet).7–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 6J. Abreu singled to left, Dubón scored, Tucker to second.7–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–4
- 6Dubón singled to left, Julks scored and Peña scored.6–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 5Escobar singled to left, Ward scored, Moniak to second.4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Moniak singled to right, Ohtani scored, Ward to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Tucker scored on error, J. Abreu safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Rengifo, J. Abreu safe at second on error.4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Tucker doubled to center, Bregman scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Peña grounded into fielder's choice to second, McCormick scored, Julks out at second, Madris to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Julks singled to right, J. Abreu scored, Madris to second, McCormick to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Neto grounded out to pitcher, Renfroe scored, Stefanic to second.0–2
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 49%
- Fair odds
- LAA -105
- HOU +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +3 | HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +5 Elo | HOU 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–19 | Road vs home | 23–2015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 5–2 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.