Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AbreuBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 13 K
Angels- Mike MoustakasBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Ward grounded into fielder's choice to second, Ohtani out at second, Cabbage scored on throwing error by shortstop Kessinger.12–13
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball In Play12–13
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul12–12
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul12–12
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 212–12
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging12–12
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 112–12
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–12
- 9Renfroe singled to center, Velazquez scored, Escobar to third.12–12
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–12
- 9Ward scored, Escobar to second on passed ball by Maldonado, Velazquez to third on passed ball by Maldonado.12–11
- 9Ward scored, Escobar to second on passed ball by Maldonado, Velazquez to third on passed ball by Maldonado.12–11
- 9Ohtani homered to center (404 feet).12–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 112–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–9
- 9Diaz singled to left, J. Abreu scored.12–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging11–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–9
- 8McCormick homered to right (373 feet), Diaz scored.11–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–9
- 7Moustakas homered to right center (386 feet), Moniak scored and Escobar scored.9–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–6
- 7Escobar singled to right, Ward scored, Moniak to second.9–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 39–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 29–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 7Neto homered to left center (424 feet), Rengifo scored.9–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 7J. Abreu homered to center (398 feet), Dubón scored and Bregman scored.9–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 46%
- Fair odds
- LAA -102
- HOU +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −7 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +27 Elo | HOU 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 5th of 3026–19 | Road vs home | 23–2116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 6–2 LAA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.