Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Hogan HarrisPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bregman homered to left center (397 feet).3–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Tucker doubled to center, Peña scored and Dubón scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Brown doubled to left, Kemp scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 64%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- OAK +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.8 – 4.4 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −17 | HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OAK: Hogan Harris: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +98 Elo | HOU 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 6th of 3028–21 | Road vs home | 14–3630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 6–0 OAK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.