Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ken WaldichukPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Duvall scored on error, Hernández safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Peterson, Hernández safe at second on error.5–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 5Turner grounded out to second, Refsnyder scored, Yoshida to third.4–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Refsnyder singled to center, Wong scored.3–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 4Peterson homered to right center (393 feet), Langeliers scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 2Thomas homered to right center (396 feet), Peterson scored.2–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 1Bleday homered to right (396 feet), Kemp scored.2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Turner homered to left center (402 feet), Refsnyder scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 63%
- Fair odds
- BOS -117
- OAK +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.1 – 4.7 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −2 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +92 Elo | BOS 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 10th of 3025–23 | Road vs home | 13–3630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 4–1 OAK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.