Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Kris BryantBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tommy DoylePitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 4Tovar tripled to center, Cron scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 33–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 1McMahon homered to center (461 feet).3–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 1Bryant homered to right center (395 feet), Profar scored.3–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Diaz doubled to left, McCormick scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1McCormick singled to center, Bregman scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Bregman doubled to left, Dubón scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Fair odds
- HOU -103
- COL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 6.1 – 6.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +17 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Jake Bird: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +15 Elo | HOU 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 5th of 3027–20 | Road vs home | 22–2523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–0 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.