Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Austin WynnsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connor SeaboldPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Grichuk singled to center, Bryant scored, Cron to second.3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Slater homered to left center (399 feet), Flores scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Sabol singled to center, Bailey scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Wynns homered to left (369 feet).2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Conforto homered to left (355 feet), Pederson scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Cron singled to center, McMahon scored, Bryant to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 63%
- Fair odds
- SF -129
- COL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.4 – 4.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +5 | COL: Connor Seabold: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Ryan Walker: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +92 Elo | SF 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 28th of 3014–31 | Road vs home | 24–2217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–3 SF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.