New York Yankees at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Oswaldo CabreraBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Rockies- C.J. CronBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chase AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 11Trejo homered to left center (421 feet).7–8
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–8
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 27–8
- 11Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 17–7
- 11Jones homered to left center (450 feet), Cron scored.7–7
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–7
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 11Peraza singled to center, Cabrera scored, Stanton to second.7–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 11Cabrera singled to right, Volpe scored.6–5
- 11Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–5
- 11Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 11Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–5
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 35–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 9Bader sacrificed into double play, left to catcher to shortstop, Torres scored, Peraza thrown out at third.5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 9Torres reached on infield single to third, McKinney scored on throwing error by third baseman McMahon, Torres to second.4–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 8Cron homered to center (432 feet), Trejo scored, Tovar scored and McMahon scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Volpe grounded out to shortstop, Kiner-Falefa scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Kiner-Falefa singled to center, LeMahieu scored and Bader scored on throwing error by third baseman McMahon, Kiner-Falefa to third.2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 62%
- Fair odds
- NYY -109
- COL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.6 – 5.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −39 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Anderson: team allows 1.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +85 Elo | NYY 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3022–20 | Road vs home | 21–2524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–1 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.