New York Yankees at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Rockies- C.J. CronBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connor SeaboldPitching2.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8McMahon grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Profar scored, Bryant out at second.6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Cron homered to center (452 feet).6–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 36–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 2Stanton homered to right (398 feet), Volpe scored and Torres scored.6–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 16–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 2Torres singled to center, Bader scored, Volpe to third.3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Higashioka hit sacrifice fly to right, LeMahieu scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Profar scored on a balk, Díaz to second on a balk.1–1
- 1Profar scored on a balk, Díaz to second on a balk.1–1
- 1Stanton grounded out to shortstop, Torres scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- COL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.5 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −12 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Connor Seabold: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +47 Elo | NYY 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 12th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 21–2424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.