New York Yankees at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Kris BryantBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jones homered to center (469 feet).2–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 7Bryant homered to left (408 feet), Doyle scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4Grichuk homered to left center (431 feet).2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Doyle doubled to left, Grichuk scored and Tovar scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 2Tovar singled to center, Cron scored, Grichuk to second.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Stanton homered to left center (455 feet), Torres scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Fair odds
- NYY -103
- COL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.5 – 5.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +11 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +26 Elo | NYY 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 11th of 3021–19 | Road vs home | 20–2425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.