Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Harold CastroBatting2-3
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 4Davis homered to center (421 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 59%
- Fair odds
- SF -127
- COL +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.3 – 4.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +2 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +66 Elo | SF 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3014–32 | Road vs home | 25–2215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–4 SF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.