San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Joc PedersonBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Riley AdamsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pederson homered to left (351 feet).1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5Adams homered to left (348 feet).0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 4Thomas doubled to left, L. García scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Abrams hit sacrifice fly to right, Adams scored, L. García to second.0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Garrett doubled to center, Thomas scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Smith singled to right, Meneses scored and Thomas scored, Garrett to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 55%
- Fair odds
- SF -103
- WSH +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.7 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −9 | SF: Scott Alexander: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +35 Elo | SF 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 5th of 3028–21 | Road vs home | 17–3228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–4 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.