San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Blake SabolBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Reds- Will BensonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sabol homered to left (349 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pederson grounded into double play, first to shortstop to pitcher, Villar scored, Schmitt out at second, Wisely to third.1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Benson homered to left center (409 feet), Encarnacion-Strand scored and Stephenson scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 52%
- Fair odds
- CIN -107
- SF +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.2 – 5.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −1 | SF: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +13 Elo | CIN 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.222nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3028–17 | Road vs home | 23–2622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 2–0 CIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.