San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Davis reached on infield single to second, McCutchen scored.8–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 18–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–3
- 10Bailey doubled to center, Yastrzemski scored and Conforto scored.8–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 10Conforto doubled to right, Davis scored and Flores scored.6–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 10Pederson hit sacrifice fly to center, Schmitt scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Triolo hit sacrifice fly to right, McCutchen scored, Palacios to third.3–3
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 33–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Triolo grounded out to shortstop, Davis scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Matos grounded out to second, Pederson scored, Yastrzemski to second, Davis to third.3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Davis singled to right, Wade Jr. scored on fielding error by right fielder Davis, Wisely scored, Pederson to second.2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Reynolds reached on infield single to shortstop, Triolo scored, Joe to second, Delay to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 55%
- Fair odds
- SF -101
- PIT +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.6 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −15 | SF: Alex Wood: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PIT: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +36 Elo | SF 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 4th of 3025–17 | Road vs home | 22–2321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 3–2 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.