San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Henry DavisBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Conforto singled to right, Schmitt scored on error and Pederson scored on throwing error by catcher Delay, Conforto to second.3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 2Davis homered to left center (422 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Yastrzemski homered to center (411 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 55%
- Fair odds
- SF -101
- PIT +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.6 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −1 | SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +37 Elo | SF 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 22–2220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 2–2 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.