San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Jiman ChoiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Rich HillPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Matos singled to left, Bailey scored.6–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 7Bailey singled to right, Flores scored on error and Davis scored on fielding error by right fielder Davis.5–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Marcano hit sacrifice fly to center, Davis scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Choi hit sacrifice fly to right, Reynolds scored, Davis to third.3–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Crawford grounded out to shortstop, Matos scored, Schmitt to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Triolo scored on a balk, Marcano to second on a balk.2–2
- 5Triolo scored on a balk, Marcano to second on a balk.2–2
- 5Choi homered to center (404 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Conforto singled to right, Crawford scored and Slater scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Fair odds
- PIT -102
- SF +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.6 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −7 | SF: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +9 Elo | SF 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 4th of 3023–17 | Road vs home | 22–2121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–2 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.