Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting1-4
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Miller homered to left (405 feet).3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Contreras homered to right (372 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Yelich homered to left (358 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 58%
- Fair odds
- CIN -115
- MIL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.8 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +19 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +59 Elo | CIN 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 10th of 3024–21 | Road vs home | 23–2219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 6–2 CIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.