Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Kevin NewmanBatting1-3
- Ben LivelyPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-4
- Wade MileyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 1Winker singled to center, Yelich scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Fair odds
- MIL -110
- CIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.8 – 5.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +13 | CIN: Ben Lively: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +27 Elo | MIL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.222nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 4th of 3027–19 | Road vs home | 25–2112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–4 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.