Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Joey VottoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Votto doubled to right, India scored, Fraley to third.3–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Caratini singled to center, Perkins scored, Turang to third.2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Adames homered to left (378 feet), Contreras scored.2–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Votto homered to right center (417 feet), De La Cruz scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 2Wiemer homered to left center (397 feet), Caratini scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1O. Miller doubled to left, Adames scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Adames doubled to center, Contreras scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 45%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.7 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +27 | −15 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 1.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +35 Elo | CIN 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.222nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–18 | Road vs home | 24–2011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 1–3 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.