Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Joey VottoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9India hit sacrifice fly to right, Friedl scored.8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7De La Cruz stole third, scored on steal of home.7–5
- 7De La Cruz stole home.7–5
- 7De La Cruz singled to left, Friedl scored.6–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 5Fraley doubled to right, McLain scored.5–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Turang tripled to center, Anderson scored.4–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 4Votto homered to right center (423 feet), De La Cruz scored and Fraley scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Adames homered to left (375 feet), Yelich scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Yelich doubled to right, Wiemer scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 31–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Benson homered to right center (393 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Adames homered to left center (422 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Fair odds
- MIL -110
- CIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.7 – 4.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +4 | CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +25 Elo | MIL 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.121st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–19 | Road vs home | 25–2010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 1–4 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.