San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Conforto grounded into fielder's choice to second, Pederson scored.4–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 10Pederson doubled to left, Wisely scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 32–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7India homered to right (371 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Flores homered to left (387 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Slater homered to center (442 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1McLain homered to right center (382 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 48%
- Fair odds
- CIN -106
- SF +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.9 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −13 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +15 Elo | SF 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.122nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–17 | Road vs home | 23–2421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.