Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Monasterio singled to right, Taylor scored, Monasterio to second.4–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 8Miller hit sacrifice fly to center, Adames scored, Taylor to second.3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 5Yelich singled to center, Monasterio scored, Turang to second.2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 11–3
- 3Fraley homered to right center (398 feet), McLain scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Yelich homered to center (439 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Votto doubled to center, India scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.8 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +1 | MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CIN: Ben Lively: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +7 Elo | CIN 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 8th of 3025–21 | Road vs home | 23–2319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 7–2 CIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.