San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting2-3, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching2.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Votto homered to left center (385 feet), McLain scored.11–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul11–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 111–8
- 7Matos singled to left, Sabol scored and Wisely scored, Schmitt to second.11–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 29–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–8
- 7Schmitt walked, Yastrzemski scored, Wisely to second, Sabol to third.9–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 49–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking8–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 38–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–8
- 6Flores sacrificed into double play, Wisely scored, Matos thrown out at third.8–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–8
- 5Encarnacion-Strand homered to left (426 feet), De La Cruz scored and McLain scored.7–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–5
- 5Yastrzemski doubled to center, Conforto scored and Flores scored.7–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 35–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 27–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 5Conforto singled to center, Matos scored, Flores to second.5–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 3Friedl scored, Fraley advanced to third on caught stealing error by Sean Manaea.4–5
- 3Friedl scored, Fraley to third.4–5
- 3Flores homered to center (407 feet), Wisely scored and Schmitt scored.4–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 50%
- Fair odds
- CIN -107
- SF +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.0 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −6 | SF: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +1 Elo | CIN 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.222nd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3027–17 | Road vs home | 23–2521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–0 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.