Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wisdom homered to left center (398 feet), Mancini scored.7–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 7Ruiz homered to right center (400 feet), Candelario scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 6Happ homered to left center (370 feet), Suzuki scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6García hit sacrifice fly to center, Garrett scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4García reached on infield single to second, Garrett scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Smith grounded out to second, Ruiz scored, Garrett to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 2Morel singled to left, Bellinger scored, Gomes to second.2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Candelario homered to left (359 feet), Abrams scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Fair odds
- CHC -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.8 – 5.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −10 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +47 Elo | CHC 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 16th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 22–2422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 3–1 CHC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.