Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vargas doubled to left, Abrams scored and Thomas scored.6–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–9
- 8Arenado homered to left (377 feet).4–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 34–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 6Arenado hit sacrifice fly to left, Goldschmidt scored.4–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 5DeJong singled to center, Gorman scored.4–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 5Gorman doubled to center, Burleson scored and Walker scored.4–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 5Meneses hit sacrifice fly to left, Chavis scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 4Adams singled to left, Vargas scored, Smith to second.3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 3Abrams homered to right (408 feet).2–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Call homered to left center (403 feet).1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 2Goldschmidt singled to center, Donovan scored.0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Fair odds
- STL -112
- WSH +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.0 – 5.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −6 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +24 Elo | STL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3022–22 | Road vs home | 16–2527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–2 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.