Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Vargas grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Abrams scored, Thomas out at second.7–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 26–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 10Thomas singled to right, Call scored, Abrams to third.6–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 8Contreras homered to right center (415 feet).5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 8Meneses doubled to left, Vargas scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 15–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Donovan homered to right (391 feet), DeJong scored and Carlson scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 34–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Abrams scored on error, Thomas safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Arenado.4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5García stole home, Abrams stole second, Abrams safe at third on throwing error by catcher Contreras.3–1
- 5García stole home, Abrams stole second, Abrams safe at third on throwing error by catcher Contreras.3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Call grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Smith scored, García to second.2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Meneses singled to right, Abrams scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Fair odds
- STL -115
- WSH +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.0 – 5.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +9 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +40 Elo | STL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 3021–22 | Road vs home | 16–2427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.